A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
